U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

PubAg

Main content area

Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?

Author:
Maystadt, Jean-François, Ecker, Olivier
Source:
American journal of agricultural economics 2014 v.96 no.4 pp. 1157-1182
ISSN:
0002-9092
Subject:
drought, fuels, livestock, livestock prices, markets, standard deviation, Somalia
Abstract:
A growing body of evidence shows a causal relationship between extreme weather events and civil conflict incidence at the global level. We find that this causality is also valid for droughts and local violent conflicts in a within‐country setting over a short time frame in the case of Somalia. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in drought intensity and length raises the likelihood of conflict by 62%. We also find that drought affects conflict through livestock price changes, establishing livestock markets as the primary channel of transmission in Somalia.
Agid:
6812098