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Assessment of the impact of climate change on the latency period of leaf rust on triticale in Poland

Wójtowicz, Andrzej, Wójtowicz, Marek, Sigvald, Roland, Czernecki, Bartosz, Ratajkiewicz, Henryk, Łacka, Agnieszka, Zacharczuk, Maciej, Pasternak, Maria
Acta agriculturæ Scandinavica 2020 v.70 no.3 pp. 195-207
climate change, climate models, disease outbreaks, disease severity, leaf rust, meteorological data, prediction, probability, temperature, triticale, Poland
Disease development in plants is strongly dependent on weather conditions, with temperature playing a particularly significant role by influencing latency period duration. Using two models describing the relationship between latency period and temperature, we performed simulations aimed at predicting changes in the latency period of leaf rust (Puccina recondita f. sp. tritici) on triticale in response to expected climate change. The simulations were based on meteorological data recorded in the period 1986–2005 at locations representing 16 provinces in Poland and based on values obtained after transformation of the observed data to reflect temperature changes under four scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) according to the giss_e2_r climate model. In all scenarios, the results for the two triticale cultivars studied, Witon (vulnerable to P. recondita) and Gniewko (less susceptible), showed a threat of faster development (shorter leaf rust latency period) on triticale triggered by climate change in south-east and south-central Poland than in other regions. The results also showed an increased probability of future regional diversification of leaf rust latency period duration on vulnerable triticale cultivars, opportunities for earlier start of leaf rust epidemics on triticale in Poland and an increase in final disease severity in comparison with 1986–2005.