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Spatial-temporal potential exposure risk analytics and urban sustainability impacts related to COVID-19 mitigation: A perspective from car mobility behaviour

Peng Jiang, Xiuju Fu, Yee Van Fan, Jiří Jaromír Klemeš, Piao Chen, Stefan Ma, Wanbing Zhang
Journal of cleaner production 2021 v.279 pp. 123673
Bayesian theory, COVID-19 infection, air, cities, data analysis, decision making, emissions, heat, human behavior, issues and policy, models, pandemic, planning, regression analysis, risk, risk assessment, socioeconomics, space and time, Singapore
Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) poses a significant threat to the population and urban sustainability worldwide. The surge mitigation is complicated and associates many factors, including the pandemic status, policy, socioeconomics and resident behaviours. Modelling and analytics with spatial-temporal big urban data are required to assist the mitigation of the pandemic. This study proposes a novel perspective to analyse the spatial-temporal potential exposure risk of residents by capturing human behaviours based on spatial-temporal car park availability data. Near real-time data from 1,904 residential car parks in Singapore, a classical megacity, are collected to analyse car mobility and its spatial-temporal heat map. The implementation of the circuit breaker, a COVID-19 measure, in Singapore has reduced the mobility and heat (daily frequency of mobility) significantly at about 30.0%. It contributes to a 44.3%–55.4% reduction in the transportation-related air emissions under two scenarios of travelling distance reductions. Urban sustainability impacts in both environment and economy are discussed. The spatial-temporal potential exposure risk mapping with space-time interactions is further investigated via an extended Bayesian spatial-temporal regression model. The maximal reduction rate of the defined potential exposure risk lowers to 37.6% by comparison with its peak value. The big data analytics of changes in car mobility behaviour and the resultant potential exposure risks can provide insights to assist in (a) designing a flexible circuit breaker exit strategy, (b) precise management via identifying and tracing hotspots on the mobility heat map, and (c) making timely decisions by fitting curves dynamically in different phases of COVID-19 mitigation. The proposed method has the potential to be used by decision-makers worldwide with available data to make flexible regulations and planning.