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Estimation, characteristics, and determinants of energy-related industrial CO₂ emissions in Shanghai (China), 1994–2009

Shao, Shuai, Yang, Lili, Yu, Mingbo, Yu, Mingliang
Energy policy 2011 v.39 no.10 pp. 6476-6494
carbon dioxide, econometrics, energy efficiency, environmental impact, greenhouse gas emissions, industry, models, China
This paper estimates energy-related industrial CO₂ emissions (ICE) in Shanghai from 1994 to 2009 and summarizes ICE's characteristics. The results show that the coal-type consumption is the ICE's largest source of the entire industry and that the energy consumption structure of CO₂ emissions of the entire industry depends largely on that of six sub-sectors of high emission group, which contributes to most of ICE. Furthermore, the paper implements an econometric study on the ICE's determinants based on the ICE-STIRPAT model. The results indicate that the relationship between ICE and per capita output presents an inverted N-shaped curve with two turning points, resulting from the comprehensive influence of scale, composition, and technique effects, and that most sub-sectors remain in the second stage of the curve. Energy efficiency exerts a more efficient control over ICE than R&D intensity. ICE intensity is regulated more easily than ICE scale. In the long run, industrial growth and coal-type consumption play the most important roles in driving ICE, whereas energy efficiency exerts the most prominent effect on reducing it. The results of the robustness analysis indicate that the utilization of the ICE-STIRPAT model is valid and robust under the setting of environment impact control over ICE in Shanghai.