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Scenarios for regional passenger car fleets and their CO₂ emissions

Meyer, Ina, Kaniovski, Serguei, Scheffran, Jürgen
Energy policy 2012 v.41 pp. 66-74
carbon, carbon dioxide, climate change, consumer demand, fuels, greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gases, income, income elasticities, models, purchasing, traffic
Passenger car traffic is among the main contributors to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which are responsible for climate change. It is also an important indicator used to forecast these emissions in integrated climate-economic models. This paper develops scenarios for global passenger car stock until 2050. The study adopts a global regionalized approach, encompassing 11 world regions. Car stock projections are obtained using a multi-model approach, which includes a consumer demand model based on utility maximization, a non-linear Gompertz model and a panel estimate of the income elasticity of demand for cars. The main hypothesis underlying these projections is that preferences for purchasing cars are similar across cultures and nations and that the demand for cars is largely determined by disposable income. We apply scenarios for the average traffic volume and fuel efficiency developed in previous work together with the average carbon content of fuels to obtain the CO₂ emissions.